Good afternoon everyone. Brent Chavez, Aequitas Equitas Investment Group. I hope this video finds all of you doing well. 

I just wanted to spend a few minutes sharing with you some very interesting data that I’ve been looking at from around the globe the last several weeks. As all of you know, we’re very big on data here in our practice. It helps us not only pick the proper portfolio for the individual investor based on their risk tolerances, but also helps us with our overall view of the stock market.

We want that data to help us make those decisions. Recently, I had sent out a video talking about the technicals of the markets, how the markets in general, we’re talking about the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 in particular, had been, for the last 20 months, bouncing against all time highs. And really, this wasn’t a sign of weakness or that we’re going into this recession, but probably a good chance that the next move would be higher over the next several months.

But, as we look at the data from around the globe, we see something that is also very interesting that is happening that really affirms our feelings concerning what is going on, not only here in the United States, but globally. 

Let me share some of this with you through the use of charts.

We’re looking at charts; they can potentially give us indicators or help us to know which direction the market would like to go to, or biased towards, up or down. The direction of these charts can change at anytime for a number of reasons… like a tweet from the President of the United States, or maybe something like a terrorist attack on oil fields. But we’re noticing with a lot of the charts from around the globe that there’s a very positive move in their indexes… more and more are hitting 52-week highs. This is far from what we would be seeing if a big bad recession was about to hit. 

The first one I want to share with you is that of the Philadelphia Semiconductors.

We want to remember, semiconductors are a leading indicator to activity that’s going on around the globe. And we’re seeing here that the semiconductors are not only at a 52-week high, but that’s an all time high that they’re bouncing against… something we wouldn’t expect to see for heading into a recession. 

Let’s take a look at another chart. Let’s look at the chart of Taiwan.

Again, as we look at this chart in Taiwan, another 52-week high. In fact, it’s an all time high. And we would expect that. It makes sense. The economy in Taiwan is tied to semiconductors. So, we’d expect that economy to do well and the index to be doing well. 

But, let’s keep going. 

Now, let’s jump to Germany and look at the DAX index.

Again, another 52-week high. Germany is the driver of Europe – a good indicator that things are okay.

So, let’s look at another chart from Europe. Let’s look at Switzerland.

Again, Switzerland… another 52-week high. An all time high in that country in their index. 

Let’s continue around the globe. Let’s go to Asia. Let’s look at Japan and the Nikkei 225.

Again, we’re seeing another 52-week high that that index is hitting up against. So, again, more positive evidence. 

Let’s take a look back at Europe but at a bigger piece of the pie over there. We’re going to look at the Euro 50, which encompasses all of the “Eurozone.”

And, again, we see another 52-week high.

So, we keep hearing over and over again, people saying that “we’re going into a recession,” “we’re going to have a bear market.” But, again, as we look at the data, it’s saying something different. And it’s not just in countries like Germany or Taiwan, Japan, or right here at home in the US, we see positive data in some countries that have been downright horrible. Really bad economies like Brazil. 

Let’s take a look at that chart.

As we look at the Brazilian ETF, again, bouncing and hitting up against 52-week highs – looking, maybe in the next few weeks or months, it could pop through that resistance. Very interesting bit of data. 

And it even goes to countries like Greece. Let’s take a look at Greece.

Here’s Greece popping up against a 52-week high… a country that was defaulted less than 10 years ago on their debt… popping against 52-week highs. We’re seeing in indexes that speak against a coming recession at this time. And it really speaks against that bearish thesis that we’ve been hearing people pounding on TV and in the news: “Recession’s coming! Recession’s coming!” 

We know anything can happen at any time… all of this positive technicals in the markets can change seemingly overnight. But, the evidence, the data right now, is speaking against a recession happening soon. And it’s saying, potentially, we could be going into another leg up in the bull run in our markets here in the US. 

As we know, we don’t know what the future is going to bring, but we’re going to keep looking at the charts, the indexes around the globe, for the data. And, at this time, that data is very positive. 

The last chart that we want to share with you is that of a global index.

This chart is weighted. 40% of the weight of this index is made up of US companies. Again, we see another 52-week high – in fact, it’s almost a 24-month high in that index. 

So, as we gather the global evidence, coupled with the evidence that we have in the Dow Jones, the S&P and the NASDAQ doing very well, it’s contradicting a recession happening soon. And in fact, the payoff could be finally coming for all of you who’ve been patiently waiting in the markets these last 24 months, especially for higher highs that actually mean higher values in your retirement accounts. 

Thank you. I hope that you found this video interesting. If you have any questions or concerns, please reach out to me at the office.