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The Sequence of Returns

Brent E Chavez

The Sequence of Returns

A look at how variable rates of return do (and do not) impact investors over time.

What exactly is the “sequence of returns”? The phrase describes the yearly variation in an investment portfolio’s rate of return. Across 20 or 30 years of saving and investing for the future, what kind of impact do these deviations from the average return have on a portfolio’s final value?

The answer: no impact at all.

Once an investor retires, however, these ups and downs can have an effect on portfolio value – and retirement income.

During the accumulation phase, the sequence of returns is ultimately inconsequential. Yearly returns may vary greatly or minimally; in the end, the variance from the mean hardly matters. (Think of “the end” as the moment the investor retires: the time when the emphasis on accumulating assets gives way to the need to withdraw assets.)

An analysis from BlackRock bears this out. The asset manager compares three model investing scenarios: three investors start portfolios with lump sums of $1 million, and each of the three portfolios averages a 7% annual return across 25 years. In two of these scenarios, annual returns vary from -7% to +22%. In the third scenario, the return is simply 7% every year. In all three situations, each investor accumulates $5,434,372 after 25 years – because the average annual return is 7% in each case.1

Here is another way to look at it. The average annual return of your portfolio is dynamic; it changes, year-to-year. You have no idea what the average annual return of your portfolio will be when “it is all said and done,” just like a baseball player has no idea what his lifetime batting average will be four seasons into a 13-year playing career. As you save and invest, the sequence of annual portfolio returns influences your average yearly return, but the deviations from the mean will not impact the portfolio’s final value. It will be what it will be.1

When you shift from asset accumulation to asset distribution, the story changes. You must try to protect your invested assets against sequence of returns risk.

This is the risk of your retirement coinciding with a bear market (or something close). Even if your portfolio performs well across the duration of your retirement, a bad year or two at the beginning could heighten concerns about outliving your money.

For a classic illustration of the damage done by sequence of returns risk, consider the awful 2007-2009 bear market. Picture a couple at the start of 2008 with a $1 million portfolio, held 60% in equities and 40% in fixed-income investments. They arrange to retire at the end of the year. This will prove a costly decision. The bond market (in shorthand, the S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index) gains 5.7% in 2008, but the stock market (in shorthand, the S&P 500) dives 37.0%. As a result, their $1 million portfolio declines to $800,800 in just one year. 2, 3

If you are about to retire, do not dismiss this risk. If you are far from retirement, keep saving and investing, knowing that the sequence of returns will have its most relevant implications as you make your retirement transition.

Have questions? Please contact us at (215) 766-7002 or info@aeinvestmentsgroup.com.

Learn more about Brent E Chavez, the Services We Provide, or Why Choose AE?

Citations
1 – blackrock.com/pt/literature/investor-education/sequence-of-returns-one-pager-va-us.pdf [10/19]
2 – kiplinger.com/article/retirement/T047-C032-S014-is-your-retirement-income-in-peril-of-this-risk.html [7/3/18]
3 – thebalance.com/how-sequence-risk-affects-your-retirement-money-2388672 [2/8/19]

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

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Why DIY Investment Management Is Such a Risk

Brent E Chavez

Why DIY Investment Management Is Such a Risk

Paying attention to the wrong things becomes all too easy.

If you ever have the inkling to manage your investments on your own, that inkling is worth reconsidering. Do-it-yourself investment management is generally a bad idea for the retail investor for myriad reasons.

1. Getting caught up in the moment.
When you are watching your investments day to day, you can lose a sense of historical perspective. This may be especially true in longstanding bull markets, in which investors are sometimes lulled into assuming that the big indices will move in only one direction.

2. Listening too closely to talking heads.
The noise of Wall Street is never-ending and can breed a kind of shortsightedness that may lead you to focus on the micro rather than the macro. As an example, the hot issue affecting a sector today may pale in comparison to the developments affecting it across the next ten years or the past ten years.

3. Looking only to make money in the market.
Wall Street represents only one avenue for potentially building your retirement savings or wealth. When you are caught up in the excitement of a rally, that truth may be obscured. You can build savings by spending less. You can receive “free money” from an employer willing to match your retirement plan contributions to some degree. You can grow a hobby into a business or even switch jobs or careers.

4. Saving too little.
For a DIY investor, the art of investing equals making money in the markets, not necessarily saving the money you have made. Subscribing to that mentality may dissuade you from saving as much as you should for retirement and other goals.

5. Paying too little attention to taxes.
A 10% return is less sweet if federal and state taxes claim 3% of it. This routinely occurs, however, because just as many DIY investors may play the market in one direction, they also may skimp on playing defense.

6. Failing to pay attention to your emergency fund.
You may need more than six months of cash reserves. Many people may not have anywhere near that, and some DIY investors give scant attention to their cash position. 1

7. Overreacting to a bad year.
Sometimes the bears appear. Sometimes stocks do not rise 10% annually. Fortunately, you have more than one year in which to plan for retirement (and other goals). Your long-run retirement saving and investing approach – aided by compounding – matters more than what the market does during a particular 12 months. Dramatically altering your investment strategy in reaction to present conditions can backfire.

8. Equating the economy with the market.
They are not one and the same. Moreover, some investments and market sectors can do well or show promise when the economy goes through a rough stretch.

9. Focusing more on money than on the overall quality of life.
Managing investments – or the entirety of a very complex financial life – on your own takes time. More time than many people want to devote; more time than many people initially assume. That kind of time investment can subtract from your quality of life – another reason to turn to other resources for help and insight.

Have questions? Please contact us at (215) 766-7002 or info@aeinvestmentsgroup.com.

Learn more about Brent E Chavez, the Services We Provide, or Why Choose AE?

Citations
1 – cnbc.com/2019/03/18/how-much-to-save-for-emergencies-comes-down-to-income-spending-habits.html [3/18/19]

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

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